1. International oil prices plummeted as reports suggested Israel would not target Iran's oil facilities.

Oil prices took a significant hit on Tuesday following reports that Israel might avoid attacking Iran's energy production facilities. This news eased market concerns about significant supply disruptions, shifting traders' focus back to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) expectation of a supply surplus at the beginning of next year. The IEA warned on Tuesday that while tensions pose a threat to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, the oil market is expected to face a surplus by early 2025. The agency slightly reduced its demand growth forecast and stated that OPEC+'s spare production capacity is near record levels. The November U.S. oil contract fell by 3.78%,报价 at $71.04 per barrel, briefly dropping below $70 per barrel during the day. The December Brent oil contract fell by 3.46%,报价 at $74.78 per barrel.

OPEC's downgrade of global oil demand growth expectations and the decision to postpone increasing crude oil production reflect the organization's cautious approach to the current economic situation and energy markets. This adjustment may be based on considerations of economic growth slowdown, energy transition trends, and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the drop in oil prices also indicates the market's sensitivity to supply and demand relationships, as well as uncertainty about future energy prices and demand. Although OPEC's forecasts are relatively optimistic, this continuous downgrading of expectations, along with adjustments to production plans, may increase market volatility and affect global energy policies and investment decisions.

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2. ASML's poor performance leads to a collapse in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and AI concept stocks such as Nvidia.

Dutch photonics giant ASML was scheduled to release its third-quarter financial report on Wednesday, but due to an operational error, the report was prematurely posted on the website during the early morning of Tuesday's U.S. stock market. As a result, the poor performance surprised the market: although revenue exceeded expectations, the third-quarter order volume was only €2.63 billion, a sequential decline of 53%, less than half of the market's expected €5.6 billion; however, net sales exceeded expectations, reaching €7.5 billion. The company also lowered its sales target and gross margin guidance for next year, expecting net sales in 2025 to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, in the lower half of the previous forecast range. Affected by this, ASML's stock plummeted by 16.26% overnight, also leading to a collapse in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and AI concept stocks such as Nvidia. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 5%, the largest drop in over a month. ASML stated that the proportion of third-quarter system sales in the Chinese market was 47%, compared to 49% in the previous quarter, and China remains ASML's largest market. It is expected that the Chinese market will contribute about 20% to the company's total revenue in 2025.

ASML's stock price plummeted by 16% overnight, the largest single-day decline in 26 years, mainly due to underperforming expectations and pessimistic guidance for the next year. The order volume was only half of the market's expectations, leading the market to believe that the AI bubble is disappearing. I personally believe that the AI chip market is stratifying, with high-end chips still in short supply, such as Nvidia's Blackwell, with orders continuing to be hot, but other chips may experience insufficient demand, such as AMD's new AI chip last week, which the market did not buy. Finally, the market has always questioned the AI bubble, but from the current situation, AI's updates and development have exceeded market expectations, and various doubts have ultimately been slapped in the face. In chip investment, high-end chips may still be the market's darling in the future, while other chips may face the risk of investment bubble.

ASML's significant stock price fluctuations may affect the performance of the A-share semiconductor sector, but the industry trend remains positive.

3. Google will purchase nuclear reactor electricity, and nuclear power stocks are once again favored by the market.

Google announced on Monday that it plans to purchase electricity from 6-7 small modular reactors (SMRs) proposed to be built by Kairos Power, with a total capacity of 500 megawatts. Both parties have signed a power purchase agreement, with Kairos planning to deliver the reactors between 2030 and 2035, and the construction site has not yet been determined. According to media calculations, the electricity generation of a 500-megawatt capacity is expected to meet the power demand of a medium-sized city or an AI data center park. This means that Google will become the world's first company to commission the construction of a new nuclear power station to power its data centers. However, it is not the first technology giant to layout nuclear power; previously, Oracle and Microsoft have also made corresponding layouts. Affected by this news, U.S. nuclear power stocks performed strongly on Monday. As of Monday's U.S. stock market close, the nuclear power sector rose by 49.06%, with component stock Constellation Energy's year-to-date increase exceeding 130%. The company announced last month that it has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to restart the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Station Unit 1. In addition, among the S&P 500 component stocks, the best-performing stock this year is Vistra Energy, with its stock price rising by 246.26% from the beginning of the year to Monday. This U.S. energy company's business portfolio includes subsidiaries TXU Energy (electricity retail supplier) and Luminant (engaged in nuclear power generation, thermal power generation, and wind power generation). Analysts predict that as the power demand of data centers and artificial intelligence technology continues to increase, and some decommissioned nuclear power stations are put back into use, the growth in uranium demand may further accelerate. Investors can pay attention to related stocks in the uranium sector and related ETFs; in addition, other public utility stocks also have room for appreciation.

As the power demand for AI and data centers surges, technology giants like Google are beginning to seek nuclear power as a stable and low-carbon energy solution. Google's agreement with Kairos Power not only demonstrates the potential of nuclear power in the clean energy transition but also shows the tech industry's interest in small modular reactor technology. This trend may drive innovation in the nuclear power industry, prompting it to shift from traditional large nuclear power stations to more efficient, lower-cost small reactors. At the same time, it also shows the positive role of technology giants in reducing carbon footprints and promoting sustainable development.AI favors nuclear power because the enhancement of computing power requires a large amount of energy as support. There is still room for valuation increase in the domestic electricity sector.

④ Citigroup's market division achieved the best performance in at least ten years in the third quarter

Benefiting from the surge in volatility across all asset classes in recent months, Citigroup's traders achieved the best performance in at least ten years in the third quarter. The revenue of the market division increased by 1% to $4.82 billion in the third quarter. This growth was unexpected, as Citigroup had warned investors a few weeks ago that it expected the revenue to decline. The revenue from equity trading increased by 32%, boosting the performance of the division. Although the surge in non-performing credit card loans put pressure on profits, Citigroup's other four main businesses - services, banking, wealth management, and U.S. personal banking - also achieved year-on-year revenue growth. Citigroup's net profit in the third quarter fell by 9% to $3.2 billion, or $1.51 per share. The bank set aside $2.7 billion in provisions for the quarter, mainly affected by the credit card business. The revenue of the banking division soared by 16% to $1.6 billion, with investment banking service fees increasing by 44%. The bank's large service business revenue increased by 8% to $5 billion, U.S. personal banking business revenue increased by 3% to $5 billion, and wealth management business revenue soared by 9% to $2 billion.

Citigroup achieved strong trading performance in the third quarter, thanks to the increase in market volatility, especially in equity trading. Despite facing a decline in net profit and regulatory issues, Citigroup's other business lines performed steadily, and the company is actively taking measures to resolve regulatory issues, indicating that the company is moving in the right direction. In addition, Citigroup's stock price performance is strong, reflecting the market's confidence in its long-term growth potential.

The significant increase in the performance of top banks is highly related to the decline in inflation and economic development. It is worth paying attention to state-owned large banks with higher dividends and stronger stability.

⑤ Goldman Sachs' third-quarter profit soars by 45%, with equity trading business achieving the best performance in more than three years

Goldman Sachs' financial report shows that the third-quarter revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $12.7 billion; thanks to the unexpected increase in equity trading revenue and the recovery of investment banking business, the profit increased by 45% year-on-year to $2.99 billion, or $8.40 per share, both higher than expected. The significant increase in derivative and cash product intermediary income has helped the company's equity trading business achieve the best quarterly performance in more than three years, with revenue reaching $3.5 billion and expected to record the best annual performance in history. Investment banking fee revenue across all key business lines exceeded expectations. However, as the bank predicted earlier, fixed income trading revenue declined. This year, as Goldman Sachs gave up most of its consumer banking business and focused on benefiting from the rebound in investment banking business, investors have been buying Goldman Sachs' stocks and pushing up its share price. Goldman Sachs' stock price has increased the most among large U.S. banks this year, reaching 36%, and set a historical high on Monday. Although the business focus is clearer, the bank has not yet been able to achieve a target return on equity of about 15%, achieving it only once in the past 10 quarters. Fixed income trading business revenue declined by 12% to $2.96 billion, due to reduced bond and commodity income. Due to strong debt and equity underwriting business, the quarterly investment banking business revenue soared by 20% to higher than expected $1.87 billion. Asset and wealth management business revenue was $3.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%. Goldman Sachs' cooperation with Apple's credit card also faces an uncertain future, as media reports previously stated that JPMorgan is negotiating to replace Goldman Sachs as Apple's credit card partner.

The United States is in the period of quarterly performance announcement. Overnight, large financial stocks such as Citigroup, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs announced their third-quarter performance, with an overall ideal performance. Specifically, Citibank's revenue and net profit for the period increased by 0.9% and decreased by 9% year-on-year, respectively, both better than the market's original expectations. Although the interest rate environment in the third quarter declined, leading to a decrease in net interest income for Citibank, the strong performance of the global investment market in the third quarter drove a significant increase in Citibank's wealth department revenue and investment banking department revenue, becoming the main driving force for performance growth. Bank of America's revenue and net profit for the period increased by 1% and decreased by 12% year-on-year, respectively, also higher than the market's original expectations. Similar to Citibank, Bank of America benefited from the active performance of the global capital market during the period, recording significant growth in wealth management and global market revenue, but the related growth was offset by the decline in net interest income under pressure from the net interest margin. As for Goldman Sachs, the quarterly performance announced is that of a more ideal financial institution, mainly because Goldman Sachs, as a company mainly engaged in traditional investment banking business, benefits more from the current capital market performance. During the period, Goldman Sachs' revenue and profit increased by 7% and 45% year-on-year, respectively, higher than market expectations. During the period, the group's wealth management, underwriting business, and equity trading performed comprehensively, but the consumer platform business suffered losses, offsetting part of the growth. Overall, the performance of this round of large financial enterprises reflects that the current U.S. economy still maintains resilience, the capital market performance is strong, and the interest rate environment is generally high, and the profitability of financial enterprises is still strong.

⑥ BofA's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations: trading income surged by 12%, and net interest income slightly decreased

Bank of America's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, thanks to the gains in turbulent markets and net interest income that exceeded analysts' expectations. Despite the decline in net interest income, BofA's revenue in the third quarter slightly increased by less than 1%, reaching $25.49 billion, and net profit decreased by 12% year-on-year to $6.9 billion, or 81 cents per share, partly due to the increase in loan loss provisions and expenses. Driven by the growth in trading income, asset management, and investment banking fees, Bank of America's equity and fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity trading income increased by 12% in the third quarter, reaching $4.93 billion. Fixed income trading income increased by 8% to $2.9 billion, and equity trading income increased by 18% to $2 billion. Investment banking business income increased by 15%, and fees rose by 18%, reaching $1.4 billion, showing the strong market demand for trading activities. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan emphasized that the company benefited from the year-on-year growth in investment banking and asset management fees, as well as sales and trading income. Although M&A advisory fees decreased by 14%, equity and bond issuance income increased by 16% and 37%, respectively. Bank of America's credit loss provisions were $1.5 billion, slightly lower than the expected $1.57 billion. Net interest income decreased by 2.9% to nearly $14 billion, better than analysts' expectations. The decline in this indicator is partly due to the interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the past two years.Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup's third-quarter financial reports all demonstrated strong performances in their stock trading and investment banking businesses, despite facing different challenges such as Goldman Sachs' decline in fixed-income trading and termination of cooperation with General Motors, Bank of America's net interest income decline, and Citigroup's net profit decline and regulatory issues. These challenges did not prevent the market from being optimistic about the long-term growth potential of these banks, and their stock prices performed strongly, reflecting investor confidence. It is worth mentioning that last week, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo also released their latest financial reports, with earnings exceeding expectations. Executives pointed out that the surge in investment banking and trading business was key to the performance improvement. Across Wall Street, major banks are showing that they can withstand the adverse effects of interest rate cuts on retail business, while highlighting the possibility of increased deal-making, which will push up fees across the industry. Nevertheless, these banks still need to continue to work hard in areas such as risk management, compliance, and data training to meet regulatory requirements and support future growth strategies.

Johnson & Johnson's third-quarter profit exceeded expectations due to an acquisition that led to a downward revision of full-year adjusted earnings per share. Johnson & Johnson's financial report showed that the company's profit was higher than expected, driven by the soaring sales of the cancer drug Darzalex, while the full-year forecast was lowered to account for a medical device acquisition. The company's adjusted earnings per share were $2.42, exceeding expectations; drug sales increased by nearly 5%, exceeding analyst expectations by more than $400 million, with sales of Darzalex, which treats multiple myeloma, soaring by more than 20%. Analysts estimate that Darzalex will bring Johnson & Johnson about $11 billion in revenue this year. Johnson & Johnson is striving to maintain growth as it faces the loss of exclusivity for Stelara, a drug used to treat psoriasis. In addition, Johnson & Johnson recently announced a $1.7 billion acquisition of V-Wave Ltd. (the company is developing an implant device for the treatment of heart failure), which will generate about $600 million in research and development expenses (IPR&D) in the fourth quarter. As a result, the company revised its adjusted profit forecast for 2024 to $9.88-9.98 per share, lower than the previous minimum forecast of $9.97 per share. The earnings per share forecast excluding acquisition-related expenses for V-Wave is $10.15, an increase of 10 cents from previous expectations.

Johnson & Johnson's third-quarter performance showed strong performance in key drug sales, especially the market success of Darzalex, indicating the company's potential in innovative drug development. Despite challenges such as patent expiration and biosimilar competition, Johnson & Johnson has demonstrated its growth strategy in the medical device field through new approvals and acquisitions, such as the acquisition of V-Wave Ltd. In addition, the company's progress in resolving long-term litigation issues helps to improve investor sentiment and pave the way for the company's future development. Johnson & Johnson's positive attitude towards acquisitions also shows its determination to seek growth opportunities in the rapidly changing healthcare market.

Johnson & Johnson's improved third-quarter performance is associated with the increase in drug sales. The pharmaceutical sector in the A-share market may be facing a good opportunity for layout.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s latest analysis states that by the end of this year, global public debt is expected to reach $100 trillion, accounting for 93% of global GDP; by 2030, global debt is expected to approach 100% of GDP. The IMF warns that governments will need to make tough decisions to stabilize borrowing. The report states that debt in the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom is expected to increase, and countries where debt is not expected to stabilize account for more than half of global debt, about two-thirds of global GDP. The IMF, using the "at-risk debt" framework, found that under extremely adverse conditions, future debt levels could reach 115% of GDP within three years, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the baseline forecast. The reason is that current high debt levels amplify the impact of slowing growth or tightening financial conditions and the rise in future debt level spreads. Debt risk indicators in advanced economies have declined from the peak of the pandemic and are currently estimated at 134% of GDP, but debt risk indicators in emerging markets and developing economies have risen to 88%. The IMF stated that the current fiscal adjustment plans are far from the level needed to ensure a high probability of stabilizing (or reducing) debt.

The IMF's latest analysis reveals the grim situation of global public debt and emphasizes the urgency of taking action. The continued rise in global debt levels could threaten economic stability and growth, especially in the face of potential economic shocks. Governments need to take decisive measures, including fiscal adjustments and policy reforms, to stabilize debt levels and reduce debt risks. In addition, the IMF emphasizes the importance of considering social impacts when making fiscal adjustments to ensure economic growth while protecting vulnerable groups. This forecast and recommendations are a clear warning to global economic policymakers, requiring their joint efforts to avoid potential debt crises.