On October 16th, the main crude oil contract once fell to 535 yuan/barrel, and after three consecutive days of sharp declines, the international oil prices have累计 fallen by more than 50 yuan compared to the high point on October 14th. However, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC, 600938.SH) and China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL, 601808.SH), which are more sensitive to oil prices, opened low and closed high, stopping the previous downward trend.

Industry insiders believe that the sharp changes in the international geopolitical situation have caused significant fluctuations in oil prices, affecting the performance of oil stocks. On the other hand, stocks such as oil and gas belong to the category of high dividend stocks. As the A-share market retraces, it temporarily returns to a low-risk preference environment, and high dividends will be favored by funds. However, if the market returns to a high-risk preference environment, high dividends may not be a good choice due to insufficient elasticity.

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Xin Ding Fund's Chief Economist Hu Yu analyzed to Yicai that the oil price has a certain impact on the performance of the oil sector. The oil sector belongs to the high dividend category, and high dividend dividend sectors will perform better in the defensive phase. However, if the market's risk preference rises again in the future, the cost performance ratio of high dividend sectors may not be obvious, and the market will prefer sectors with high performance elasticity because there is more upward space, and they can enjoy the opportunity of rising performance and valuation.

Boda Capital's CEO Wen Tianna believes that the main reason for the previous rise in oil prices was the tension in the Middle East's geopolitical situation, which has recently fallen back. The current global inflation factors still exist, making the layout uncertain. After the sharp retracement of A-shares, investors currently have a certain wait-and-see sentiment towards A-shares, and there is a similar situation for the related oil and gas sectors.

Jianxin Futures analyst Li Jie said that Israel stated that its counterattack against Iran will mainly focus on military facilities, and OPEC lowered its global crude oil demand expectations, causing oil prices to fall significantly overnight. Looking at the supply and demand balance sheet, the inventory reduction in the fourth quarter will slow down, and the fundamentals of crude oil will weaken on the margin. Coupled with a certain degree of cooling in the Middle East situation, short-term oil prices may continue to be weak, but with the support of OPEC's production reduction, the downside space for oil prices will not be too large. Later, attention should be paid to Iran's further counterattacks, and oil prices will rise again at that time.

In the view of Shanjin Futures analyst Cao Youming, macro-wise, the market's expectation for the next interest rate cut by the United States is basically locked at 25BP, and the expectation for interest rate cuts within the year is 50BP. The market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has turned quickly, and it may continue to trade in the short term, while also paying attention to the risk of policy expectations turning again. After the domestic market introduced a series of major policies, the market response was enthusiastic. Whether it will drive crude oil demand still needs to be observed. At present, it is still possible that there will be more positive factors within the year.