After repeated reports that Israel will not attack Iran's oil facilities, the news of an Israeli attack on Iran seems to have lost its significant impact on international crude oil prices.

On Wednesday, October 16th, Eastern Time, CNN reported, citing a source, that "Israel's plan to respond to Iran's attack on October 1st is ready," with the source not disclosing further information. Another CNN report on the same day, from an informed source, stated that U.S. officials anticipate that Israel will retaliate against Iran's attack this month before the U.S. presidential election on November 5th, with the specific timetable to be made public a few days before the U.S. election.

Earlier on Wednesday, a prediction similar to the above-mentioned timing of Israel's counterattack on Iran was mentioned. The report stated that experts' analysis suggests that preparations for Israel to strike Iran appear to be in place.

Although Israel seems close to striking Iran, the decline in international crude oil prices on Wednesday did not reverse, with a brief rebound in U.S. stock trading after turning down during European stock trading.

Advertisement

At the beginning of the European stock trading session on Wednesday, when the U.S. stock market hit a new daily high, U.S. WTI crude oil broke through $71.30 to $71.31, with a daily increase of slightly more than 1%, and Brent crude oil broke through $74.90 to $74.93, with a nearly 1% increase for the day. The European stock market turned down several times during the trading session, and when the U.S. stock market hit a new low in the morning, U.S. oil fell below the $70 mark for the second consecutive day, breaking below $69.70, with a daily drop of more than 1.3%. Brent oil fell below $73.50, with a daily drop of nearly 1.1%, and later narrowed most of its losses, with a brief rebound in the U.S. stock market at noon.

In the end, crude oil closed lower for four consecutive trading days, with both closing at their lowest levels since October 2nd for two consecutive days. WTI November crude oil futures closed down by about 0.27%, at $70.39 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed down by about 0.04%, at $74.22 per barrel.

Although crude oil continued to close lower on Wednesday, the drop was significantly milder compared to Tuesday. On Tuesday, both U.S. and Brent crude oil saw significant drops of 5.6% during trading, closing down by more than 4%. The main news that hit crude oil that day was that more than one media outlet mentioned that the Israeli government would heed the United States' call and would not target Iran's oil and nuclear facilities in response to the large number of missile attacks from Iran earlier this month.

Furthermore, following the OPEC monthly report on Monday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also lowered its global oil growth forecast for this year in its monthly report released on Tuesday, which also severely impacted crude oil on Tuesday.

The IEA's monthly report forecasted a global oil demand growth of 860,000 barrels per day this year, a decrease of 40,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast. The report pointed out that the growth rate of global oil demand will significantly slow down, while OPEC+'s spare production capacity is close to a record level, and the growth in U.S. production is expected to cause a supply surplus by early 2025. Without significant disruptions, the oil market will face a "considerable" supply surplus, and the market will face a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day next year.