Tonight's Plan: Continue Counteroffensive
2024-05-01 News Comments(70)

Tonight's Plan: Continue Counteroffensive

Overseas, spot gold surged by more than $30, reaching a daily high of $2,668.81 and a low of $2,638.15, eventually closing at $2,662.42. Today, during the European market session, gold continued its upward trend, currently hovering around $2,678.

Collective plunge!

Overseas, the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.75%, the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.01%.

In terms of news, the Dutch photonics giant ASML, which was originally scheduled to release its third-quarter financial report on Wednesday, had its report prematurely posted on the website during the early morning U.S. stock session on Tuesday due to a technical glitch. The poor performance caused ASML's stock to plummet by more than 17% at one point, eventually closing down by 16.26% at $730.43.

As the company is a significant supplier to the entire semiconductor industry, its stock decline on Tuesday also dragged down the collective chip stocks. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell by more than 5%, while Broadcom and Intel fell by more than 3%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Qualcomm fell by over 2%.

Analysts pointed out that ASML's performance report has made investors feel anxious and uneasy. The market is concerned that ASML's orders significantly underperformed expectations and the downward revision of performance guidance may indicate a slowdown in future demand growth for the chip industry.

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Additionally, Federal Reserve officials spoke again last night.

Among them, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that future rate cuts may not be as aggressive as the significant cuts in September. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly stated that as inflation declines and the labor market cools, the Federal Reserve must remain vigilant, but she is optimistic that officials can maintain the current economic expansion momentum.

For the U.S. stock market outlook, Goldman Sachs' capital flow expert Scott Rubner stated in his recent report that he is further bullish on U.S. stocks, expecting the S&P 500 Index to far exceed 6,000 points by the end of the year.Barry Bannister of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. anticipates that the S&P 500 Index is poised for an additional 10% climb, followed by a shift in course next year that will see it descend to levels not seen since early 2024. The strategist suggests that despite market optimism regarding the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve rate cuts, the benchmark index, which has risen nearly 40% since last October, has become overextended. His analysis of century-long market frenzies indicates that the S&P 500 could rise to around 6,400 points before retreating to approximately 4,700 points by 2025, marking a 26% decline from the expected peak to levels seen at the start of this year. He is one of the few who foresaw the U.S. stock market's performance in the first half of 2023, but his bearish predictions have not materialized since then.

So far, about 40 S&P 500 Index component companies have reported their third-quarter earnings. Data shows that 80% of these stocks have exceeded analysts' expectations.

It is also worth mentioning that international oil prices continue to plummet.

Overseas, international oil prices continued to plummet, with a drop of more than 5% at one point during trading.

The WTI November crude oil futures price closed down $3.25, a decrease of 4.40%, at $70.58 per barrel, and is currently near $71.11 per barrel; the Brent December crude oil futures price fell by 4.14%, closing at $74.25 per barrel, and is currently near $74.68 per barrel.

An IEA report states that "OPEC+" has idle production capacity at a historical high. Global oil demand growth is slowing, while ample supply offsets geopolitical risks to oil production. In the absence of significant disruptive factors, the oil market will show a considerable supply surplus in the new year.

Previously, the market's greatest concern was the destruction of Iran's oil facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. With escalating tensions in the Middle East and a bullish market sentiment, crude oil prices on foreign exchanges rose sharply. However, as time passed, Israel's counterattacks did not involve Iranian oil fields, easing market expectations.

In addition to these developments, investors should also pay attention to news regarding international situations.

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